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EvaluatePharma:  Sales

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Evaluate is a single source provider of historic and forecasted sales information for companies and products. The data is sourced from company disclosures, government resources, and equity analyst reports. Evaluate also has Sales by Indication, Volume, Pricing, Cost per Patient, Discounting rates, Compliance, and much more. Our sales information allows users to derive insight into biotech and pharmaceutical performance.

Key data highlights


Consensus sales forecasts

In this page

Consensus sales forecasts

1

Drug volume and pricing information

2

Related videos

Sales by indication

3

Introduction to USA Sales, Volume & Pricing

1

Introduction to Japan Sales, Volume & Pricing

2

Introduction to Brazil Sales, Volume & Pricing

3

Evaluate provides product sales and consensus forecasts out to 2024. This information enables the life science community to make sound business decisions about value and opportunity. Please refer to our Consensus Sales Forecast Methodology document for more information on how we derive and calculate these values.

Below is a screenshot of the Top Drugs based on Worldwide sales in 2024 from our consensus forecast



Sales by Indication

Unique to Evaluate is our Sales by Indication information. Compiled mainly through equity analyst research and EvaluatePharma’s SbI Methodology, it reveals the indication specific dynamic behind historic and forecast product sales. From this data users can determine which indication is the most commercially important for a product or estimate the size of the branded market for a disease.

The screenshot below shows what the top products are based on Sales by Indication for non-Hodgkins Lymphoma.


Another way to look at the data is at the product level. Below is a screenshot of some of the Sales by Indication information for Roche’s Avastin, which as of 2018 had 20 indications in R&D or on the market.


Drug Volume and Pricing Information

Evaluate has information on drug volume and prices. This information is available for the US, Brazilian, Japanese, and European (forecast information only available in the European Drug Forecast Add-on Module) markets. The data available in these modules include retail price, number of patients treated, annual cost, volume per patient, and discounts. The information is a combination of company, government and analyst reported data, as well as our own proprietary methodology. Please refer to our methodology documents below for more information:



Below is a screenshot of the USA Sales, Number of Patients Treated and Cost per Patient for Januvia


Sales related FAQs

How does Evaluate develop the forecast estimates?


Royalty and Alliance Revenue for a product are reported separately from sales. The Royalty and Alliance Forecasts in Evaluate are generally based on sales estimates from leading brokers. Evaluate uses forecasts from up to 6 equity analysts to develop the consensus forecasts.


A.    Are forecast numbers weighted?

         i.  No, Evaluate analysts do not weight the forecast estimates when developing the consensus forecasts

B.     Are sales forecasts risk adjusted?

         i.   Evaluate analysts do not risk adjust sales themselves. Equity analysts whom we receive reports from              tend to adjust their numbers to reflect probability to launch, withdrawal, and competition risks. However,              biotech companies (especially small ones), often have their forecasts presented on a “best case”              scenario due to the binary valuation of the company. In the case where both risk adjusted and non-risk             adjusted sales forecasts are included in an equity research report, we will use the risk adjusted forecast              in our consensus

C.     How often are sales forecasts updated?

          i.   Consensus forecasts are updated as part of our monthly update

D.      How often are forecast years extended?

          i.   Consensus forecasts are usually extended by two years, once every two years. The extension is made                once we have a sufficient number of forecasts from analysts, usually around May



Does Evaluate have historic and/or forecasted sales?


Forecast sales are available on a Worldwide basis and for the USA

         -  Forecast sales for Europe are available as an add-on subscription within Evaluate

Historic sales are available for Worldwide, USA, Japan, Brazil, and Europe



Why do I see two different numbers for sales within the same company?


When a company reports its financial's, it will disclose sales of certain key products in its portfolio. These sales figures are associated with the appropriate product in the Products Module. We can then add these up at a company level. However, as there may be additional sales which are not attributed to a specific product, then the sum of the identified product sales may be less than the total sales for a company. The difference between the Total WW Prescription (Rx) Sales for a company and the Rx Sales from Products Module is classified as ‘Other Rx and OTC’ or ‘Other (Therapy Area Name)’


What is Evaluate’s currency conversion methodology?


Historic annual sales in Evaluate are converted to different currencies using the average exchange rate over the past year. Historic quarterly sales in Evaluate are converted to different currencies using the exchange rate over the past quarter. Forecast annual sales for the current year are converted to different currencies using the average exchange rate from the start of the year. Forecast annual sales for the future years are converted to different currencies using the average exchange rate from the last month.


To determine historic annual, half-year, or quarterly exchange rates, you can use Evaluate’s Currency Tool. To view the last month’s average exchange rate, simply look at the next full future year’s rate (and all subsequent years).


The exchange rates used are sourced from the Sauder Business School at The University of British Columbia in Canada: http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/


Sales by Indication  - When does Evaluate use a single indication forecast?


Evaluate will use a single indication forecast if the entire company’s forecast model is based on a single broker model. For example, if 4 out of 6 analysts only provide a forecast for a single indication (e.g. NSCLC) for Product X, and the remaining 2 analysts do not provide a sales by indication forecast, Evaluate will only provide a forecast for the one indication (NSCLC in this example).


Sales by Indication - If a broker includes a line item for “other indication sales”, does Evaluate include the “other” in the sales by  indication total?


No, if a broker has a line item for “other indication sales” in their model, the “other” amount would not be included in the sales total. Evaluate takes the percent split from the consensus forecast to build each indications forecast and apply that to the product sales. It is rare that the “other” sales would be a large value.