Frequently Asked Questions
How does Evaluate develop the forecast estimates?
Forecasts in Evaluate are generally based on sales estimates from leading brokers. Evaluate uses forecasts from up to 6 equity analysts to develop the consensus forecasts.
I. No, Evaluate analysts do not weight the forecast estimates when developing the consensus forecasts
B. Are sales forecasts risk adjusted?
I. Evaluate analysts do not risk adjust sales themselves. Equity analysts whom we receive reports from tend to adjust their numbers to reflect probability to launch, withdrawal, and competition risks. However, biotech companies (especially small ones), often have their forecasts presented on a “best case” scenario due to the binary valuation of the company. In the case where both risk adjusted and non-
C. How often are sales forecasts updated?
I. Consensus forecasts are updated as part of our monthly update
D. How often are forecast years extended?
I. Consensus forecasts are usually extended by two years, once every two years. The extension is made once we have a sufficient number of forecasts from analysts, usually around May
3 Caveats around the Consensus Forecast
1. Derivation from current equity analyst forecasts.
Forecasts in Evaluate are generally based on analyst forecasts. However, where possible, for private companies we will also use analyst forecasts to generate a forecast. This is especially true in cases where the private company books sales and a partner company books royalties; the sales can be derived from the royalty forecasts, especially if we have an idea of the royalty percentages. This method is also used for smaller non-
2. Derivation from old equity analyst forecasts.
When equity analyst forecasts become old and no new ones are available, our analysts analyse the assumptions behind those forecasts, check for any macro changes in the market and sign off these forecasts as valid or amend them based on new information that may be available.
3. EvaluatePharma constructed forecasts.
When no information is available from equity analysts or from the company itself regarding sales forecasts, Evaluate analysts construct a forecast based on a number of key factors:
(1) Current growth trends -
(2) Patent & exclusivity information.
(3) Growth trends in similar products, both pharmacologically and indication-
(4) Expected changes in the competitive landscape.
This is mainly used on marketed products (you can tell current growth trends only if the product is marketed for example and the same is true for patents and market exclusivity)
How often does Evaluate update the data?
Daily updates include: press releases, share prices, NPVs, Calendar of Events, Event Analyser, Clinical Trials data, and EP Vantage articles
Weekly updates include: updates from Drugs@FDA and venture financing information
Monthly updates include: consensus forecasts, merger information, and any product phase changes
Quarterly updates include: Product sales are updated within 24-
Does Evaluate have historic and/or forecasted sales?
Forecast sales are available on a Worldwide basis and for the USA
Historic sales are available for Worldwide, USA, Japan, Brazil, and Europe
Does Evaluate have Sales by Indication?
Yes, Evaluate currently offers Sales by Indication coverage on over 4,000 products. Evaluate’s Sales by Indication provides indication-
Do sales include Royalties and Alliance Revenues?
Royalty and Alliance Revenue for a product are reported separately from sales. The Royalty and Alliance Revenue reported for a product is not additive to sales, as it is already included in the revenue of another company. Evaluate breaks out the Royalty and Alliance Revenue to detail the relationship between the companies involved in the product
Does Evaluate cover Generics?
Evaluate does not cover all generic products. The product portfolio only covers the commercially significant generics for a company (those that disclose sales data for which specific information is disclosed by the company). Therefore sales data for generic products is available in Evaluate, but it is not as comprehensive as it is for branded products
What happens when a company has a Different Fiscal Year?
Annual sales are always based on a company’s fiscal year, so we stay in-
Are there definitions of data items within Evaluate?
Yes, you can see definitions by clicking on a data column header and a pop-
Why do I see two different numbers for sales within the same company?
When a company reports its financial's, it will disclose sales of certain key products in its portfolio. These sales figures are associated with the appropriate product in the Products Module. We can then add these up at a company level. However, as there may be additional sales which are not attributed to a specific product, then the sum of the identified product sales may be less than the total sales for a company. The difference between the Total WW Prescription (Rx) Sales for a company and the Rx Sales from Products Module is classified as ‘Other Rx and OTC’ or ‘Other (Therapy Area Name)’
What is the difference between Therapeutic Category and Indication?
A therapeutic category is a product classification, with a one-
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