Frequently Asked Questions
How does Evaluate develop the forecast estimates?
Forecasts in Evaluate are generally based on sales estimates from leading brokers. Evaluate uses forecasts from up to 6 equity analysts to develop the consensus forecasts.
I. No, Evaluate analysts do not weight the forecast estimates when developing the consensus forecasts
B. Are sales forecasts risk adjusted?
I. Evaluate analysts do not risk adjust sales themselves. Equity analysts whom we receive reports from tend to adjust their numbers to reflect probability to launch, withdrawal, and competition risks. However, biotech companies (especially small ones), often have their forecasts presented on a “best case” scenario due to the binary valuation of the company. In the case where both risk adjusted and non-
C. How often are sales forecasts updated?
I. Consensus forecasts are updated as part of our monthly update
D. How often are forecast years extended?
I. Consensus forecasts are usually extended by two years, once every two years. The extension is made once we have a sufficient number of forecasts from analysts, usually around May
3 Caveats around the Consensus Forecast
1. Derivation from current equity analyst forecasts.
Forecasts in Evaluate are generally based on analyst forecasts. However, where possible, for private companies we will also use analyst forecasts to generate a forecast. This is especially true in cases where the private company books sales and a partner company books royalties; the sales can be derived from the royalty forecasts, especially if we have an idea of the royalty percentages. This method is also used for smaller non-
2. Derivation from old equity analyst forecasts.
When equity analyst forecasts become old and no new ones are available, our analysts analyse the assumptions behind those forecasts, check for any macro changes in the market and sign off these forecasts as valid or amend them based on new information that may be available.
3. EvaluatePharma constructed forecasts.
When no information is available from equity analysts or from the company itself regarding sales forecasts, Evaluate analysts construct a forecast based on a number of key factors:
(1) Current growth trends -
(2) Patent & exclusivity information.
(3) Growth trends in similar products, both pharmacologically and indication-
(4) Expected changes in the competitive landscape.
This is mainly used on marketed products (you can tell current growth trends only if the product is marketed for example and the same is true for patents and market exclusivity)
4. Does Evaluate have peak sales?
How often does Evaluate update the data?
Daily updates include: press releases, share prices, NPVs, Calendar of Events, Event Analyser, Clinical Trials data, and EP Vantage articles
Weekly updates include: updates from Drugs@FDA and venture financing information
Monthly updates include: consensus forecasts, merger information, and any product phase changes
Quarterly updates include: Product sales are updated within 24-
Does Evaluate have historic and/or forecasted product sales?
Forecast sales are available on a Worldwide basis as well as USA basis
Historical sales are available for Worldwide, USA, Japan, Brazil, and Europe
Does Evaluate have Sales by Indication?
Yes, Evaluate currently offers Sales by Indication coverage on over 4,000 products. Evaluate’s Sales by Indication provides indication-
Do sales include Royalties and Alliance Revenues?
Royalty and Alliance Revenue for a product are reported separately from sales. The Royalty and Alliance Revenue reported for a product is not additive to sales, as it is already included in the revenue of another company. Evaluate breaks out the Royalty and Alliance Revenue to detail the relationship between the companies involved in the product
Does Evaluate cover Generics?
Evaluate does not cover all generic products. The product portfolio only covers the commercially significant generics for a company (those that disclose sales data for which specific information is disclosed by the company). Therefore sales data for generic products is available in Evaluate, but it is not as comprehensive as it is for branded products
What happens when a company has a Different Fiscal Year?
Annual sales are always based on a company’s fiscal year, so we stay in-
Are there definitions of data items within Evaluate?
Yes, you can see definitions by clicking on a data column header and a pop-
Why do I see two different numbers for sales within the same company?
When a company reports its financial's, it will disclose sales of certain key products in its portfolio. These sales figures are associated with the appropriate product in the Products Module. We can then add these up at a company level. However, as there may be additional sales which are not attributed to a specific product, then the sum of the identified product sales may be less than the total sales for a company. The difference between the Total WW Prescription (Rx) Sales for a company and the Rx Sales from Products Module is classified as ‘Other Rx and OTC’ or ‘Other (Therapy Area Name)’
What is the difference between Therapeutic Category and Indication?
A therapeutic category is a product classification, with a one-
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Does Evaluate have regional sales coverage?
Historical product sales are available if disclosed by the company.
Product consensus forecast sales are available based on the availability of broker analyst reports.
Europe (Total sales):
Historical product sales are based on company reported European totals where available.
Product forecasts use one of three methodologies, prioritised in the following order:
1) Europe Consensus Forecast: indicates that there is a European consensus forecast constructed from available analyst forecasts.
2) WW -
3) WW Consensus Forecast: indicates that the European consensus is derived from the WW forecast.
Europe (Country level sales):
Historical product sales are based on three different scenarios, selecting data in the following order:
1) Company reported sales
3) Leverage European total sales to adjust for component of each country (estimated ratio determined by EFPIA’s share of pharmaceutical spending to forecast a country’s share of a product)
Please see European Drug Forecast methodology document for more details.
Historical product sales are available if disclosed by the company.
Product forecast sales are either consensus forecasts from broker analysts or derived forecasts, calculated upon proprietary methodology.
Please see the Japan Drug Forecast methodology document for details.
Does Evaluate have regional company sales?
Regional level company sales are available if disclosed by the company, however the definition of a region will vary by company.
We do not provide regional forecasts for company level sales based on broker analyst reports, however it is possible to use the sum of the forecasts of all products to estimate the company sales forecast. Please note that the combined total of product sales for a particular region will not reflect the actual market total of the region as there are products that are not currently covered.
Does Evaluate have peak sales?
Peak Sales are available within Evaluate. The examples below show how the peak sales are referenced in a broker report and how we will handle them in Evaluate:
Peak Sales Data in broker report Peak sales in Evaluate consensus